Bloomberg reports that strong Chinese demand has pushed Brazilian soybean premiums up sharply, leaving domestic crushers facing negative margins and expecting to hold off until the 2019 harvest. Brazil's soybean exports were up 13% through September, with 91% of September shipments going to China, and China has begun importing soyoil for biodiesel.
Reduced Brazilian crushing tightens soybean meal and oil supplies, which supports soybean and soyoil prices while China's soyoil imports add demand.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.