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Market sources told S&P Global that record blending mandates and rising domestic demand for soybean oil could halt Brazilian soybean oil exports in coming years. USDA projects Brazil's 2024-25 soybean oil exports at 1.4 million mt, down 22.2% from the previous season.
Brazil's biodiesel blend is B14, with B15 planned for next year.
If Brazil's domestic biodiesel demand absorbs more soybean oil, less supply reaches export markets, which could tighten global vegetable oil supply. Analysts also cite soy oil trading low, so the net effect on prices is uncertain.
spglobal.comShivam PrakashJun 26, 2024After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
