Indonesian biodiesel stakeholders are awaiting the US Commerce Department's final ruling, scheduled for November 7, 2017, on alleged subsidized biodiesel exports. The US has reduced its allegations from eight to two, and Indonesia's trade ministry continues diplomatic talks.
The worst case would be a 45% import duty.
A final duty on Indonesian biodiesel would cut palm-based biodiesel exports to the US and favor US soybean oil. The narrowed dispute lowers the chance of the worst-case outcome.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.