Indonesia plans a WTO challenge after the US raised anti-dumping duties on Indonesian palm oil-based biodiesel, with rates reaching 276.65% for one producer. Combined rates reach up to 341%, making Indonesian biodiesel effectively barred from the US, its largest market.
The duties followed a petition by US biodiesel producers filed in March 2017.
Effectively closing the US market to Indonesian biodiesel removes a demand outlet for palm oil, which is bearish for palm oil prices and adds to the surplus outlook.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.