
Indonesia has installed biodiesel capacity of about 11.36 million tons a year, but domestic and export demand absorbs less than half of that. The country has lost its major export markets, first the EU after dumping duties of 8.8% to 20.5% were imposed in 2013, and now the United States.
Persistent biodiesel oversupply and lost export outlets weaken demand for palm oil feedstock, which is bearish for palm oil prices and adds to competition in vegetable oils.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.