ABARES tell us what we know USDA surprise

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2025USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat - RFD+0.6%
• Oct 25, 2022USDA Sees Australian Wheat Crop at 34 Million Tons | KQLX-5.1%
• Dec 7, 2021ABARES scales up Australia's 2021-22 wheat export view, FOB prices peak-6.1%
• Jan 30, 2023USDA attache sees Australia 2022/23 wheat crop at 37 million tons+3.4%
• Jun 17, 2020Demand & supply heading for a mismatch - StockCo Australia+1.9%

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2019Stocks Surprise and Residual Reflections+3.8%
• Jan 12, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat drops most since August after USDA acreage surprise - AgCanada+3.9%
• Jan 1, 2018USDA Reports Provide Some Surprises+0.7%
• Dec 10, 2020CBOT weekly outlook: Some surprises in USDA's WASDE - AgCanada+2.2%
• Nov 14, 2024What is USDA seeing?-1.4%

After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2019Stocks Surprise and Residual Reflections+3.1%
• Dec 10, 2020CBOT weekly outlook: Some surprises in USDA's WASDE - AgCanada+2.6%
• Nov 8, 2024USDA Surprisingly Lowers Corn and Soybean Yield and Ending Stocks in WASDE - AgWeb-3.2%
• Jun 28, 2019USDA Reports Surprise Sends Corn Market Reeling-2.7%
• Feb 23, 2026USDA report addresses China’s what ifs – AgriNews+3.4%