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USDA's Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report put corn stocks at 2.12 billion bushels, far below analyst expectations, and soybean stocks at 913 million bushels, below the expected range of 940 million to 1.001 billion.
USDA also adjusted 2018 production estimates, lowering the soybean yield by a bushel and trimming planted acreage.
The surprise sets lower beginning stocks for the 2019-20 balance sheet, which could tighten the October WASDE outlook and support feed grain and soymeal values. Analysts will focus on whether USDA revises the new-crop numbers.
dtnpf.comKatie DehlingerSep 30, 2019After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Stocks surprise below the expected range plus lowered 2018 yield estimates supported a supply-driven rally.
