
USDA's FAS in Canberra put Australia's 2022/23 wheat crop at 34 million tonnes, down from the record 36.3 Mt in 2021/22 but the second-largest on record. Barley is forecast at 12.2 Mt versus a record 13.9 Mt last year, with rain at harvest the main quality risk.
A large but smaller Australian wheat and barley crop than last year offers ample export supply, which keeps feed grain prices from rising on Australian supply concerns.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.