
Ag Scientia reports ABARES forecasts Australian wheat above 30 million tonnes for a third straight season, at 30.3Mt, 22% above the 10-year average. Barley is seen at 10.9Mt and canola at 5.6Mt, with Queensland wheat plantings rising to 885,000 hectares.
Expanded wheat plantings at the expense of chickpeas and barley point to ample Australian supply for export markets, supporting bearish wheat and barley pricing.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.