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The USDA February 10 supply and demand report included a scenario note on what could happen if China bought more US soybeans, which would shift global exports toward US shipments. USDA raised Brazil's soybean crop by 2 million tons to 180 million and raised crush in Brazil and Paraguay on higher meal demand.
The US 2025-26 season-average soybean price was unchanged at $10.20 per bushel.
A larger Brazilian crop adds bearish supply pressure to soybeans, while higher crush and meal demand supports soybean meal prices.
agrinews-pubs.comTom DoranFeb 23, 2026After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
