
USDA's December WASDE cut 2020-21 soybean ending stocks to 175 million bushels from 190 million, above trade expectations of 168 million, and raised the crush. Corn carryout was left unchanged for another month, while wheat ending stocks were reduced by more than expected.
Soybeans gained double digits initially, but corn gave up its early gains and the trade had pre-bought ahead of the report. The soybean and wheat cuts support the feed-grain balance sheet into the new year.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.