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Analysts from FarmLink Marketing Solutions presented their cereal outlook at the Grain World conference in Winnipeg, citing USDA estimates of global wheat output at about 734 million tonnes, down 30 million from 2017. Canadian wheat exports, excluding durum, are estimated at 18.5 million tonnes, one of the larger totals in five years.
A smaller global wheat crop combined with stock drawdowns among major exporters and rising consumption of 1.5 to 2 percent per year supports wheat prices. Heavy Russian export shipments may limit later support.
agcanada.comAGCanadaNov 17, 2018After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 35 past neutral report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
