Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its 2022-23 domestic wheat price forecast by C$5 to C$405 per tonne and lifted its oat price forecast by C$25 to C$365 per tonne. It also raised its wheat export forecast by 100,000 tonnes to 18.3 million tonnes, citing decreased supply from competitors.
A larger Canadian export forecast and higher oat and wheat price expectations point to firmer global wheat and oat values as major exporter stocks tighten.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.