
USDA's July survey put US oat production down 13% from 2022, with Wisconsin oats down 45%. US winter wheat output was forecast up 9%, though Wisconsin winter wheat fell 14%.
A smaller US oat crop tightens domestic oat supply and supports prices, while the wheat increase is a partial offset for feed grain buyers.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.