The 2023 UK oat crop is provisionally the smallest since 2016, at 841,000 tonnes, down 166,000 tonnes from 2022 and below the five-year average. The decline reflects a smaller planted area as growers switched to oilseed rape, along with lower yields in parts of England.
A smaller UK crop has pushed feed oat prices above feed barley, which may reduce oat use by compounders this season. Tighter domestic supply supports oat prices while substitution limits the upside.
After 52 past bullish report events, OATS moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.