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The USDA's August report projects 2021 US oat production at 41.4 million bushels, down from 65.4 million a year earlier, on lower planted area and drought in parts of the Plains and Midwest. Ending stocks are unchanged at 25 million bushels and the average farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel.
A roughly 37 percent smaller US oat crop tightens feed oat supply and supports prices, though stocks are unchanged.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.