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USDA reported the 2021 U.S. oat crop at 39.836 million bushels, the smallest on record and 39% below 2020. Yield was 61.3 bushels per acre and September 1 oat stocks were 62.1 million bushels, 7% lower year on year.
A record-small U.S. crop with tighter stocks supports oat prices and reduces the supply available for feed use, with higher prices expected to pull acreage back in 2022.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.