USDA's Prospective Plantings report put 2026 US oat intentions at 2.36 million acres, slightly below 2025 and the third lowest on record. Barley intentions rose 2% to 2.35 million acres, with Montana and North Dakota as the main growing states.
Low oat acreage supports oat prices by tightening feed supply, while larger barley plantings add supply and pressure barley prices. Feed buyers should watch these acreage shifts when budgeting grain costs.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.