Agriculture Canada raised its 2025-26 export estimates and cut old-crop ending stocks for wheat, durum, barley and oats in its August update. Its 2026-27 outlook shows a larger wheat and durum crop but tighter barley and oat carryout, with higher price forecasts for wheat and barley.
Lower Canadian carryout and firmer export demand tighten feed barley and oat supplies, which supports prices for these grains.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.