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AAFC cut its North American oat ending stocks estimate to 350,000 mt after raising its export forecast, which is near record low. US oat production is being reduced in favour of more profitable crops, and the US is expected to rely more on Canadian imports.
Very tight oat supplies and record-low US stocks point to firmer oat prices and a volatile market ahead of the new crop.
After 52 past bullish report events, OATS moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.