
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's May outlook raised new-crop price projections for canola by $40 per tonne and wheat by $20 per tonne. Barley rose $10 and oats $5, while flax, lentils, mustard, Canary seed and chickpeas fell, with chickpeas down $100 per tonne.
Spring wheat is now forecast at a premium to durum.
Higher government price projections for wheat, barley and oats signal firmer Canadian new-crop grain values, which buyers should expect to feed into bids.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 52 past bullish report events, Oats moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.4%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.