
AAFC cut its 2023/24 Canadian canola export forecast by one million tonnes to 6 million and lowered new-crop exports to 6.9 million from 7.7 million. Domestic canola usage was raised about 500,000 tonnes, and ending stocks rose to 2.55 million tonnes for 2023/24 and 2.5 million for 2024/25.
Wheat carryout was also cut on higher feed use.
Higher canola carryout from weaker exports is bearish for canola prices, while tighter wheat stocks from higher feed use support feed grain values.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.