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ABARES raised its 2021-22 Australian wheat export forecast to 24.5 million tonnes from 23 million, up 3% on the year. APW wheat export prices reached a record high of US$372.50 per tonne.
A larger export forecast adds supply to world wheat markets, but record FOB prices indicate the export price peak may be near, which matters for feed-wheat costs.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.