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ABARES raised its Australian winter crop forecast to 68.4 million tonnes from 66.3 million, with wheat at 36 million tons and barley a record 16.3 million tons. Yields beat expectations in Western Australia and Victoria.
A bigger Australian harvest of wheat and barley adds to export supply and is bearish for global feed grain prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.