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ABARES raised its forecasts for Australian wheat to 35.6 million tonnes, barley to 15.7 million tonnes and canola to 7.2 million tonnes in its December quarterly crop report. The total winter crop is now estimated at 66.3 million tonnes, the second highest on record.
Southern New South Wales is the main exception, with output expected to fall 10% on dry spring conditions.
Higher Australian wheat and barley output increases export competition and adds to global supply, which is bearish for wheat prices. The record barley crop is a feed-grain supply increase for Asian buyers, though barley prices are holding up better on tighter fundamentals.
ukragroconsult.comDec 2, 2025
graincentral.comGrain CentralDec 1, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
