ABARES raised its national forecasts for Australian wheat, barley and canola in its latest crop report, citing late rain in south-eastern Australia. Wheat is now forecast at 31.2Mt, barley at 12Mt and canola at 3.7Mt, though Western Australian estimates were cut for all three crops.
A larger Australian winter crop adds export supply for feed grains and barley, which points to softer export prices and more competition for buyers in Asia.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.