ABARES raised its September estimates for Australian new-crop wheat to 28.9 Mt, barley to 11.2 Mt and canola to 3.4 Mt. The increases reflect mostly favourable seasonal conditions in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia, offsetting cuts in Queensland and Tasmania.
A larger Australian crop adds export supply for wheat and barley during the same months as Black Sea and other new-crop sales, which weighs on feed grain prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.