Even with lower HRW Outlook, U.S. Wheat Production called up for 2018/

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.9%
• Mar 9, 2022US Winter Wheat Production Won’t Ease Tight Global Supplies-2.4%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer-1.3%
• Jun 22, 2026Plains Drought Cuts Winter Wheat Production Forecast | Agriculture of America-5.1%
• May 26, 2020Wheat production concerns in Europe spook markets - Grain Central+4.0%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Mar 29, 2021Outlook Dims for Global Spring Wheat Production-0.5%
• Mar 25, 2024France lowers 2024-25 wheat production outlook | Latest Market News-0.6%
• Feb 16, 2024Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for EU wheat production+1.0%
• Sep 24, 2020Wheat prices rose because of lower production forecast for Argentina+6.7%
• Jun 13, 2023Coceral cuts EU 27 soft wheat production forecast to last year’s level+3.0%