
The French agriculture ministry agency Agreste cut its 2024-25 French wheat production estimate (excluding durum) to 25.78mn t, down 540,000t from August, on unfavourable weather and average yields of 6.15t/ha. It also lowered barley to 10.05mn t and raised corn to 14.39mn t.
A smaller French wheat and barley crop tightens EU feed grain supply and supports wheat and barley prices, while higher corn output partly offsets the feed tightness.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.