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France's durum wheat crop could fall to its lowest in a century after a 2023 harvest of 1.28 million tons, with planting intentions down 10.5% to 205,000 hectares. Wet conditions in the west and drought on the Mediterranean coast add to the risk.
A shrinking French durum crop has little direct effect on feed grains, but it marginally supports wheat-complex sentiment and pasta-grade pricing.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.