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France's agriculture ministry forecasts 2026 wheat output at 32 million tonnes, down 4% from 2025, as an early harvest was hit by successive heatwaves. The average yield fell to 6.93 t/ha from 7.42 t/ha despite a 3% increase in planted area.
A smaller French crop, the EU's largest and one of the world's biggest wheat exports, removes export supply and supports wheat prices for feed buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.