WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Sep 27, 2023Australian Dollar attempts to snap recent losses as Australia’s inflation rises, commodity prices decline — Octa+1.1%
• Feb 14, 2022Higher Rates, Rising Inflation, Stronger U.S. Dollar To Pressure Commodities? | Investing.com-0.0%
• Sep 17, 2026Investors are increasing their bets on the Thai baht weakening to its highest level in two months, affected by high oil prices and a stronger dollar. - Money & Banking Magazine+1.0%
• Aug 29, 2022Stocks And Bonds Sell Off, While The Dollar Rallies | Investing.com+0.6%
• Sep 27, 2022Dollar rally, recession fears wreak havoc on commodities-1.1%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 27, 2022Dollar rally, recession fears wreak havoc on commodities+1.8%
• Mar 5, 2025Declining crude oil and vegetable oil prices lower prices for sunflower seeds and oil in Ukraine+3.5%
• Dec 14, 2016U.S. bond yields, dollar gain, stocks fall after Fed rate hike-2.5%
• Feb 8, 2020DOLLAR INDEX HAS A STRONG WEEK AS EURO FALLS -- GLOBAL INVESTORS ARE FAVORING U.S. ASSETS -- STRONGER $ WEAKENS COMMODITIES -- AND FOREIGN STOCK ETFS-1.6%
• Apr 28, 2024US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities+0.9%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 5, 2025Declining crude oil and vegetable oil prices lower prices for sunflower seeds and oil in Ukraine-2.9%
• Oct 21, 2026Dollar on back foot as US yields, crude prices dip; Aussie buoyed by hawkish RBA By Reuters-0.7%
• Aug 28, 2026Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices+9.2%
• Jun 9, 2023Falling commodity prices stoke fear of global recession-0.9%
• Jul 19, 2024Commodity prices falling for very different reasons - PricePedia-5.6%