An analysis argues that a hawkish turn by most major central banks, rising inflation and a stronger US dollar could limit further commodity gains in 2022. It also notes strong US payrolls and OECD leading indicators pointing to a synchronized global upswing.
Tighter policy and a stronger dollar would pressure commodity prices, though solid global demand growth offsets some of that risk. The overall direction for feed input prices remains uncertain.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.