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The US Dollar Index posted a very strong April and hit its highest level since December 2002, driven largely by the euro's weakness. Commentary notes that a strong dollar has historically been bearish for commodities, but that relationship has broken down in 2022.
A firmer dollar makes US grains and meals pricier for foreign buyers, but the recent breakdown of this correlation means commodity prices are not reliably following currency moves.
investing.comMay 8, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
