Bank of America cut its euro forecasts, now expecting EUR/USD at 1.12 by end-Q3 and 1.15 by year-end. The bank expects a stronger dollar in the second half on resilient US data and a hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh.
A forecast for a stronger dollar through the summer points to continued pressure on dollar-denominated commodity prices and a firmer US export currency. Feed buyers in import markets may face higher local-currency costs.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.