The Fed held rates under new chair Kevin Warsh in a hawkish hold, with nine policymakers favouring at least one hike by year-end. Markets raised bets on a 25bp hike by October, and the dollar rose sharply against most major peers.
Expected Fed tightening and higher inflation projections strengthen the dollar, which lowers the local-currency cost of US-priced feed ingredients for importers. A firmer dollar can also weigh on US export competitiveness for grains and oilseeds.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.