The Fed held its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in a unanimous vote at the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. Markets read the statement as hawkish, and the dollar rose sharply, with traders pricing at least one 25bp hike this year.
Warsh's press conference later calmed nerves by projecting a measured path.
A firmer dollar raises the cost of dollar-priced commodities for foreign buyers and can pressure US export demand for feed grains and meal. Higher rate expectations also tighten financing for feed and livestock operations.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.