
Soybeans hit new highs as President Trump said he expected a trade deal with China at a meeting in South Korea, and China's Vice Premier was set to hold talks in Kuala Lumpur from October 24 to 27. Estimates suggested China would need about 300 million bushels of U.S. soybeans for December and January, well short of past purchases of 800 million bushels.
The U.S. also agreed to buy Argentine beef, and cattle futures were mixed.
Expected Chinese buying could absorb U.S. soybean supplies, but purchases remain well below past levels, so the price upside depends on actual sales confirmation.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Trump's comments on an expected China deal and the Kuala Lumpur talks set up the trade-optimism rally in soy complex futures that carried into 10/27.