
Soybean futures rose sharply in the week ending October 31 as China bought four more cargoes of about 250,000 metric tons, and the January contract reached 13-month highs. The trade framework containing purchase commitments of 12 million tons for 2025 and 25 million tons annually through 2028 drove the gains.
The trade framework and fund buying pushed soybean prices higher, though analysts doubt the binding nature of the deal and expect purchases to slow after December-January shipments.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.