Battered U.S. Soy Gets Bullish Jolt as Door to China Reopens

After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Aug 16, 2018U.S. grains: Soy climbs as U.S., China plan to restart trade talks - Manitoba Co-operator-0.2%
• Jan 30, 2026China Turns to South America for Soybeans as U.S. Corn, Sorghum Exports Gain Momentum - RFD-0.3%
• Jan 22, 2019Wheat ETF Gains as China Reopens Trade, Russia Curbs Exports | ETF Trends-0.0%
• Jan 23, 2019China may buy up to 7 million tons of U.S. wheat-0.3%
• Apr 29, 2021Feeding Chickens Is So Costly It’s Changing Global Trade Flows - Bloomberg-5.4%

After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jun 20, 2018There Are Signs China Soy Buyers Are Already Reacting to Tariffs - Bloomberg-2.4%
• Aug 26, 2020China Said to Expect Record U.S. Soybean Purchases This Year - Bloomberg+4.5%
• Jul 24, 2019China Approves Tariff-Free U.S. Soybean Purchases as Goodwill - Bloomberg-0.8%
• Mar 30, 2018U.S. ambassador warns against China curbing American soy imports: Bloomberg-1.1%
• Mar 20, 2026US Soy Ships Pile Into China as Trump Summit Delay Clouds Trade - Bloomberg+0.4%

After 342 past bullish trade events, SBM moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Aug 26, 2020China Said to Expect Record U.S. Soybean Purchases This Year - Bloomberg+3.8%
• Mar 20, 2026US Soy Ships Pile Into China as Trump Summit Delay Clouds Trade - Bloomberg-1.6%
• Mar 30, 2018U.S. ambassador warns against China curbing American soy imports: Bloomberg+0.6%
• Dec 23, 2020China’s Soy Imports to Top 100 Million Tons as U.S. Supply Jumps - Caixin Global+4.2%
• Oct 23, 2025Grains Rally as Trump Touts China Deal: Cattle Try to Recover as U.S. to Buy Argentina Beef - AgWeb+8.0%