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Wheat futures and a wheat ETF gained on speculation that China would reopen trade with large US grain purchases, following a Chinese offer to boost US imports. Russia was also considering reducing wheat exports to stabilize its domestic market.
Possible Chinese buying of US wheat and reduced Russian export supply would shift global demand toward US origin and support wheat prices. The effect depends on whether the trade talks produce confirmed purchases.
etftrends.comMax ChenJan 22, 2019After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated Jan 22, one day after the move, it describes the same China-purchase and Russian export-curb speculation that likely drove buying around Jan 21, though the timing is slightly off.
