
China's soybean imports are expected to exceed 100 million tons in 2020-21, with imports from the U.S. potentially more than doubling to 36 million tons. Crushing capacity is set to expand in 2021 and 2022 as hog herd recovery drives demand.
Expected record Chinese buying, including U.S. purchases tied to the Phase One deal, supports global soybean prices. Lower South American output expectations add further upward pressure.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.