
Soybeans are expected to remain the top U.S. agricultural export to China in 2020 despite a USDA November forecast cutting U.S. soybean production to 4.17 billion bushels after yield losses, including from an August derecho. Iowa State economists also say China exceeded its corn tariff-rate quota for the first time since 1996.
Lower U.S. soybean output combined with strong Chinese demand supports soybean prices, while China exceeding its corn quota signals heavy import pull for corn.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.