
Bloomberg reports the world is heading for its warmest winter on record, with Thailand facing its worst drought in 40 years and Europe recording its hottest winter. Australia and New Zealand are suffering poor rainfall, and the UN Food Price Index hit a five-year high in January before slipping in February.
Drought in Thailand and poor rain in Australia and New Zealand tighten supplies of rice and grains, supporting prices for feed buyers. Warm, wet European conditions cut wheat planting and raise the risk of frost damage.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.