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A series of weather problems in the growing season has sharply reduced Europe's grains crop, with COCERAL putting the EU-27 plus UK wheat crop at 129.1 million tonnes versus 146.8 million last year. The International Grains Council projects EU grain exports in 2020-21 at 35.9 million tonnes, down from 49.8 million, with the UK expected to import more wheat.
A smaller EU crop and sharply lower exports tighten world wheat supply and shift import demand toward other origins, supporting wheat prices.
world-grain.comChris LyddonOct 19, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
