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The IGC raised its 2020/21 global grain production forecast by 5Mt to 2230Mt, with higher wheat and coarse grain output. The EU Commission cut its common wheat estimate to 113.5Mt, and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology upgraded its La Niña alert, with Argentina already dealing with drought.
A lower EU wheat crop and La Niña risks in Argentina and Australia tighten wheat supply expectations, supporting wheat prices despite the larger global total.
scceu.orgAug 30, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
