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European soil moisture is at surplus levels after a wet autumn, and soft wheat plantings are estimated 2.5% lower than last year. Chicago soybean and Paris rapeseed futures have risen since early December on the expected US-China phase one trade deal.
Waterlogged soils raise the risk of crop damage and reduced wheat output, which supports European wheat and rapeseed prices and adds to firmer soybean values.
ahdb.org.ukDec 31, 2019After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
