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AHDB notes that the world relies on record South American maize and soybean crops for 2021/22, but dry soils at planting in Brazil already pose a risk from the 2020/21 La Niña. NOAA puts the odds of another La Niña lasting into early 2022 at a meaningful level.
USDA also cut US corn rated good to excellent from 62% to 60%.
Any South American dryness would threaten the record supplies the market is counting on, supporting corn and soybean prices, while the US crop rating cut adds near-term support.
ahdb.org.ukAug 24, 2021After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
