Wet weather in France has slowed winter crop plantings, with only 83% of the winter wheat drilled by 2 December versus over 90% a year earlier. Only 73% of the French crop was rated good to excellent, and UK wheat futures and Paris milling wheat declined on low export demand.
Late drilling and waterlogging are likely to cut French wheat area and yields, which supports new-crop European wheat prices. Weak current export demand, however, limits how much that support can lift the market.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.