
USDA estimated 2020 all-wheat production at 1.83 billion bushels, down 5% from 2019. Oat production rose 23% to 65.4 million bushels.
State-level results for Southern Region showed sharp swings in winter wheat output, with Georgia and South Carolina up and Alabama down.
A smaller US wheat crop tightens domestic supply somewhat, while a larger oat crop adds feed oat supply and weighs on oat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.